Trend and projection of breast cancer incidence, mortality, and Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) at the global and regional levels, 1990-2030: A Bayesian age-period-cohort modeling study Global Trends and Projections of Breast Cancer Burden
Abstract
Background: Breast cancer (BC) is the most common cancer among women and the second leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide as of 2022. Understanding long-term trends in incidence, mortality, and disease burden, as well as forecasting future patterns, is essential for effective prevention and control strategies.
Methods: Data on BC incidence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) from 1990 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease database. Temporal trends were assessed using average annual percentage change (AAPC), and future trends were projected for the next nine years using a Bayesian age–period–cohort model.
Results: From 1990 to 2021, the global absolute burden of BC increased markedly, with incident cases rising from 0.87 to 2.08 million and deaths from 0.35 to 0.66 million. This increase is projected to continue through 2030, largely due to population growth and aging. Globally, age-standardized incidence and YLD rates increased from 40.28 to 46.23 and from 28.55 to 32.26 per 100,000 population, respectively. In contrast, age-standardized mortality, DALY, and YLL rates declined over the same period. By 2030, incidence and YLD rates are expected to continue rising, while mortality, DALY, and YLL rates are projected to further decrease.
Conclusion: Future BC trends present a mixed outlook. While advances in screening, treatment, and prevention may continue to reduce mortality and disability, population aging and increased diagnostic awareness may drive rising incidence. Continued investment in research, education, and equitable access to care remains critical for improving long-term outcomes.
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